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Predicting the Winner: The Untold Story of Election Night 1952 and the Dawn of Computer Forecasting
The history of American elections changed profoundly on the night of November 4, 1952. An outside-the-box approach to predicting winners from early returns with new tools--computers--was launched live and untested on the newest medium for news: television. Like exhibits in a freak show, computers were referred to as "electronic brains" and "mechanical monsters." Yet this innovation would help fuel an obsession with numbers as a way of understanding and shaping politics. It would engender controversy down to our own time. And it would herald a future in which the public square would go digital. The gamble was fueled by a crisis of credibility stemming from faulty election-night forecasts four years earlier, in 1948, combined with a lackluster presentation of returns. What transpired in 1952 is a complex tale of responses to innovation, which Ira Chinoy makes understandable via a surprising history of election nights as venues for rolling out new technologies, refining methods of prediction, and providing opportunities for news organizations to shine. In Predicting the Winner Chinoy tells in detail for the first time the story of the 1952 election night--a night with continuing implications for the way forward from the dramatic events of 2020-21 and for future election nights in the United States.
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Supreme Command: Soldiers, Statesmen, and Leadership in Wartime
The orthodoxy regarding the relationship between politicians and military leaders in wartime democracies contends that politicians should declare a military operation's objectives and then step aside and leave the business of war to the military. In this timely and controversial examination of civilian-military relations in wartime democracies, Eliot A. Cohen chips away at this time-honored belief with case studies of statesmen who dared to prod, provoke, and even defy their military officers to great effect. Using the leadership of Abraham Lincoln, Georges Clemenceau, Winston Churchill, and David Ben-Gurion to build his argument, Cohen offers compelling proof that, as Clemenceau put it, "War is too important to leave to the generals." By examining the shared leadership traits of four politicians who triumphed in extraordinarily varied military campaigns, Cohen argues that active statesmen make the best wartime leaders, pushing their military subordinates to succeed where they might have failed if left to their own devices. Thought provoking and soundly argued, Cohen's Supreme Command is essential reading not only for military and political players but also for informed citizens and anyone interested in leadership. -
Dynasties and Democracy: The Inherited Incumbency Advantage in Japan
Although democracy is, in principle, the antithesis of dynastic rule, families with multiple members in elective office continue to be common around the world. In most democracies, the proportion of such "democratic dynasties" declines over time, and rarely exceeds ten percent of all legislators. Japan is a startling exception, with over a quarter of all legislators in recent years being dynastic. In Dynasties and Democracy, Daniel M. Smith sets out to explain when and why dynasties persist in democracies, and why their numbers are only now beginning to wane in Japan--questions that have long perplexed regional experts.
Smith introduces a compelling comparative theory to explain variation in the presence of dynasties across democracies and political parties. Drawing on extensive legislator-level data from twelve democracies and detailed candidate-level data from Japan, he examines the inherited advantage that members of dynasties reap throughout their political careers--from candidate selection, to election, to promotion into cabinet. Smith shows how the nature and extent of this advantage, as well as its consequences for representation, vary significantly with the institutional context of electoral rules and features of party organization. His findings extend far beyond Japan, shedding light on the causes and consequences of dynastic politics for democracies around the world.
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Treating People Well: How to Master Social Skills and Thrive in Everything You Do
Two White House Social Secretaries offer "an essential guide for getting along and getting ahead in our world today...by treating others with civility and respect. Full of life lessons that are both timely and timeless, this is a book that will be devoured, bookmarked, and read over and over again" (John McCain, United States Senator). Former White House social secretaries Lea Berman, who worked for Laura and George Bush, and Jeremy Bernard, who worked for Michelle and Barack Obama, have learned valuable lessons about how to work with people from different walks of life. In Treating People Well, they share tips and advice from their own moments with celebrities, foreign leaders, and that most unpredictable of animals--the American politician. Valuable "guidance for finding success in both personal and professional relationships and navigating social settings with grace" (BookPage), this is not a book about old school etiquette. Berman and Bernard explain the things we all want to know, like how to walk into a roomful of strangers and make friends, what to do about a colleague who makes you dread work each day, and how to navigate the sometimes-treacherous waters of social media. Weaving "practical guidance into entertaining behind-the-scenes moments...their unique and rewarding insider's view" (Publishers Weekly) provides tantalizing insights into the character of the first ladies and presidents they served, proving that social skills are learned behavior that anyone can acquire. Ultimately, "this warm and gracious little book treats readers well, entertaining them with stories of close calls, ruffled feathers, and comic misunderstandings as the White House each day attempts to carry through its social life" (The Wall Street Journal). -
Invisible Rulers: The People Who Turn Lies Into Reality
A brilliant, original analysis of the radical shift in the dynamics of power and influence, revealing how the machinery that powered the Big Lie works to create bespoke realities revolutionizing politics, culture, and society.
Renée DiResta's powerful original framing explains how public opinion is now shaped through a virtual rumor mill of niche propagandists. While they position themselves as trustworthy Davids, their reach, influence, and economics make them classic Goliaths, invisible rulers who create bespoke realities that control the destinies of millions of people, their work driven by a simple maxim: "if you make it trend, you make it true." By revealing the machinery and the dynamics of the interplay between influencers, algorithms, and online crowds, DiResta vividly illustrates the way belief in the fundamental legitimacy of institutions that make society work is deliberately undermined. This alternate system for shaping public opinion, unexamined until now, is rewriting the relationship between the people and their government in profoundly disturbing ways. It has become a force so shockingly effective that its destructive power seems limitless. Scientific proof is powerless in front of it. Democratic validity is bulldozed by it. Leaders are humiliated by it. With its deep insight into the power of these propagandists to drive online crowds into battle - while bearing no responsibility for the consequences - Invisible Rulers predicts the consequences unless leaders figure out how to rapidly adapt and fight back to restore our sanity and our society.
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The Struggle for Taiwan: A History of America, China, and the Island Caught Between
A concise, definitive history of the precarious relationship among the US, China, and Taiwan As tensions over Taiwan escalate, the United States and China stand on the brink of a catastrophic war. Resolving the impasse demands we understand how it began. In 1943, the Allies declared that Japanese-held Taiwan would return to China at the conclusion of World War II. The Chinese civil war led to a change of plans. The Communist Party came to power in China and the defeated Nationalist leader, Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan, where he was afforded US protection. The specter of conflict has loomed ever since. In The Struggle for Taiwan, Sulmaan Wasif Khan offers the first comprehensive history of the triangular relationship between the United States, China, and Taiwan, exploring America's ambivalent commitment to Taiwan's defense, China's bitterness about the separation, and Taiwan's impressive transformation into a flourishing democracy. War is not inevitable, Khan shows, but to avoid it, decision-makers must heed the lessons of the past. From the White Terror to the Taiwan Straits Crises, from the normalization of Sino-American relations to Trump-era rising tensions, The Struggle for Taiwan charts the paths to our present predicament to show what futures might be possible. -
Massacre in the Clouds: An American Atrocity and the Erasure of History
Between Wounded Knee and My Lai another American atrocity occurred- bigger than either of them, yet today largely forgotten. But for the existence of a single photograph, it would have been entirely lost in time. In March 1906, American soldiers on the island of Jolo in the southern Philippines surrounded and killed 1000 local men, women, and children, known as Moros, on top of an extinct volcano. The so-called 'Battle of Bud Dajo' was hailed as a triumph over an implacable band of dangerous savages, a "brilliant feat of arms" according to President Theodore Roosevelt. Some contemporaries, including W.E.B. Du Bois and Mark Twain, saw the massacre for what it was, but they were the exception and the U.S. military authorities successfully managed to bury the story. Despite the fact that the slaughter of Moros had been captured on camera, the memory of the massacre soon disappeared from the historical record. In Massacre in the Clouds, Kim A. Wagner meticulously recovers the history of a forgotten atrocity and the remarkable photograph that exposed its grim logic. His vivid, unsparing account of the massacre--which claimed hundreds more lives than Wounded Knee and My Lai combined--reveals the extent to which practices of colonial warfare and violence, derived from European imperialism, were fully embraced by Americans with catastrophic results. -
Kamala's Way: An American Life
A revelatory biography of the first Black woman to stand for Vice President, charting how the daughter of two immigrants in segregated California became one of this country's most effective power players. There's very little that's conventional about Kamala Harris, and yet her personal story also represents the best of America. She grew up the eldest daughter of a single mother, a no-nonsense cancer researcher who emigrated from India at the age of nineteen in search of a better education. She and her husband, an accomplished economist from Jamaica, split up when Kamala was only five. The Kamala Harris the public knows today is tough, smart, quick-witted, and demanding. She's a prosecutor--her one-liners are legendary--but she's more reticent when it comes to sharing much about herself, even in her memoirs. Fortunately, longtime Los Angeles Times reporter Dan Morain has been there from the start. In Kamala's Way, he charts her career from its beginnings handling child molestation cases and homicides for the Alameda County District Attorney's office and her relationship as a twenty-nine-year-old with the most powerful man in the state: married Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, a relationship that would prove life-changing. Morain takes readers through Harris's years in the San Francisco District Attorney's Office, explores her audacious embrace of the little-known Barack Obama, and shows the sharp elbows she deployed to make it to the US Senate. He analyzes her failure as a presidential candidate and the behind-the-scenes campaign she waged to land the Vice President spot. Along the way, he paints a vivid picture of her values and priorities, the kind of people she brings into her orbit, the sorts of problems she's good at solving, and the missteps, risks, and bold moves she's made on her way to the top. Kamala's Way is essential reading for all Americans curious about the woman standing by Joe Biden's side. -
Germany and China: How Entanglement Undermines Freedom, Prosperity and Security
As Europe finds itself once again caught between two superpowers - the USA and a rising China - little has been written about a relationship that will have a profound influence on the international order: the relationship between the People's Republic of China and Germany.
In Germany and China, leading international relations expert Andreas Fulda looks critically at the increasingly interdependent relationship between the two countries. Drawing on examples from politics, industry, development aid and technology sectors and academia, the book explores how successive governments from Helmut Kohl to Angela Merkel have pursued ever-closer ties to China in the interests of short term economic gain. Fulda explores the danger of this increasing entanglement not just for Germany, but for Europe and the international world order. -
Outspoken: My Fight for Freedom and Human Rights in Afghanistan
The impassioned memoir of Afghanistan's Sima Samar: medical doctor, public official, founder of schools and hospitals, thorn in the side of the Taliban, nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize, and lifelong advocate for girls and women. "I have three strikes against me. I'm a woman, I speak out for women, and I'm Hazara, the most persecuted ethnic group in Afghanistan." Dr. Sima Samar has been fighting for equality and justice for most of her life. Born into a polygamous family, she learned early that girls had inferior status, and she had to agree to an arranged marriage if she wanted to go to university. By the time she was in medical school, she had a son, Ali, and had become a revolutionary. After her husband was disappeared by the pro-Russian regime, she escaped. With her son and medical degree, she took off into the rural areas--by horseback, by donkey, even on foot--to treat people who had never had medical help before. Sima Samar's wide-ranging experiences both in her home country and on the world stage have given her inside access to the dishonesty, the collusion, the corruption, the self-serving leaders, and the hijacking of religion. And as a former Vice President, she knows all the players in this chess game called Afghanistan. With stories that are at times poignant, at times terrifying, inspiring as well as disheartening, Sima provides an unparalleled view of Afghanistan's past and its present. Despite being in grave personal danger for many years, she has worked tirelessly for the dream she is convinced is an achievable one: justice and full human rights for all the citizens of her country.Sold out -
The Hollow Parties: The Many Pasts and Disordered Present of American Party Politics
A major history of America's political parties from the Founding to our embittered present
America's political parties are hollow shells of what they could be, locked in a polarized struggle for power and unrooted as civic organizations. The Hollow Parties takes readers from the rise of mass party politics in the Jacksonian era through the years of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Today's parties, at once overbearing and ineffectual, have emerged from the interplay of multiple party traditions that reach back to the Founding. Daniel Schlozman and Sam Rosenfeld paint unforgettable portraits of figures such as Martin Van Buren, whose pioneering Democrats invented the machinery of the mass political party, and Abraham Lincoln and other heroic Republicans of that party's first generation who stood up to the Slave Power. And they show how today's fractious party politics arose from the ashes of the New Deal order in the 1970s. Activists in the wake of the 1968 Democratic National Convention transformed presidential nominations but failed to lay the foundations for robust, movement-driven parties. Instead, modern American conservatism hollowed out the party system, deeming it a mere instrument for power. Party hollowness lies at the heart of our democratic discontents. With historical sweep and political acuity, The Hollow Parties offers powerful answers to pressing questions about how the nation's parties became so dysfunctional--and how they might yet realize their promise. -
Capital: Critique of Political Economy, Volume 1
A major new translation of the explosive book that transformed our world
Karl Marx (1818-1883) was living in exile in England when he embarked on an ambitious, multivolume critique of the capitalist system of production. Though only the first volume saw publication in Marx's lifetime, it would become one of the most consequential books in history. This magnificent new edition of Capital is a translation of Marx for the twenty-first century. It is the first translation into English to be based on the last German edition revised by Marx himself, the only version that can be called authoritative, and it features extensive commentary and annotations by Paul North and Paul Reitter that draw on the latest scholarship and provide invaluable perspective on the book and its complicated legacy. At once precise and boldly readable, this translation captures the momentous scale and sweep of Marx's thought while recovering the elegance and humor of the original source. For Marx, our global economic system is relentlessly driven by "value"--to produce it, capture it, trade it, and most of all, to increase it. Lifespans are shortened under the demand for ever-greater value. Days are lengthened, work is intensified, and the division of labor deepens until it leaves two classes, owners and workers, in constant struggle for life and livelihood. In Capital, Marx reveals how value came to tyrannize our world, and how the history of capital is a chronicle of bloodshed, colonization, and enslavement. With a foreword by Wendy Brown and an afterword by William Clare Roberts, this is a critical edition of Capital for our time, one that faithfully preserves the vitality and directness of Marx's German prose and renders his ideas newly relevant to modern readers. -
Invisible Doctrine: The Secret History of Neoliberalism
A sharp, fiercely argued takedown of neoliberalism that not only defines this slippery concept but connects it to the climate crisis, poverty, and fascism--and shows us how to fight back. Neoliberalism is the dominant ideology of our time. It shapes us in countless ways, yet most of us struggle to articulate what it is. Worse, we have been persuaded to accept this extreme creed as a kind of natural law. In Invisible Doctrine, journalist George Monbiot and filmmaker Peter Hutchison shatter this myth. They show how a fringe philosophy in the 1930s--championing competition as the defining feature of humankind--was systematically hijacked by a group of wealthy elites, determined to guard their fortunes and power. Think tanks, corporations, the media, university departments and politicians were all deployed to promote the idea that people are consumers, rather than citizens. One of the most pernicious effects has been to make our various crises--from climate disasters to economic crashes, from the degradation of public services to rampant child poverty--seem unrelated. In fact, they have all been exacerbated by the "invisible doctrine," which subordinates democracy to the power of money. Monbiot and Hutchison connect the dots--and trace a direct line from neoliberalism to fascism, which preys on people's hopelessness and desperation. Speaking out against the fairy tale of capitalism and populist conspiracy theories, Monbiot and Hutchison lay the groundwork for a new politics, one based on truly participatory democracy and "private sufficiency, public luxury" an inspiring vision that could help bring the neoliberal era to an end. -
Beneath the Mountain: An Anti-Prison Reader
Essential radical texts by enslaved, jailed, and imprisoned Americans, edited by renowned political prisoner Mumia Abu-Jamal and activist-scholar Jennifer Black.
"Martin Luther King told us what he saw when he went to the mountaintop....But there's also the foot of the mountain, and there are also the regions beneath the surface. I want to try to tell you a little something about those regions."--Angela Y. Davis, author of Angela Davis: An Autobiography
Beneath the Mountain is a reader's guide for understanding the evolution of anti-prison tenets. This essential core of primary texts provides an arc of insurgent writings by dissidents and revolutionaries who experienced incarceration and state terror first-hand. With contributions from John Brown, Frederick Douglass, and Crazy Horse, to Assata Shakur, Malcolm X, and Leonard Peltier, it also includes a previously unpublished communiqué from Angela Davis, written from jail at the time when she was forging the anti-prison critique that has since inspired a national movement.
Beneath the Mountain offers a record of the historic foundations for the contemporary abolition movement. What emerges from these texts is an emancipatory vision that inspires the work being done today, a vision centered on organizing and solidarity as an antidote to repression. An invaluable resource for readers on both sides of prison walls, this compendium of resistance and hard-won vision will be essential to all who seek to develop an abolitionist critique and to further an understanding of the nature of repression and liberation.
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Protest Art (Art Essentials)
A well-researched, concise guide to protest art, exploring what happens when artists join forces with radical political movements to foster change. The works and movements discussed in this book emerged at times of great upheaval including war, colonialism, independence, and changes of government. They reveal how art and politics have been intertwined throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.
Jessica Lack adopts an inclusive and international approach, presenting examples from nations and societies around the globe, including Sylvia Pankhurst's paintings depicting the harsh realities faced by women manual workers in early 1900s Britain; the revolutionary aesthetic created by Emory Douglas for the Black Panthers in the 1960s, which documented and galvanized the campaign for the rights of Black Americans; Nandalal Bose's portrait of Mahatma Gandhi, which became the iconic symbol of the Indian nonviolence movement in the 1930s; and the Chilean direct action work that contributed to the collapse of General Pinochet's government.
Each of the nine chapters addresses different ways in which art has been used to effect political transformation, taking in humor and satire; performance and propaganda; art's relationships to institutions, the media, conflict, and the state; and its uses as a weapon, a galvanizing force, and a way of refusing the status quo. Artistic acts, collectives, and movements are examined in their context, revealing how they have influenced other artists and changed the wider political and artistic world.
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Circles of Compensation: Economic Growth and the Globalization of Japan
Japan grew explosively and consistently for more than a century, from the Meiji Restoration until the collapse of the economic bubble in the early 1990s. Since then, it has been unable to restart its economic engine and respond to globalization. How could the same political-economic system produce such strongly contrasting outcomes?
This book identifies the crucial variables as classic Japanese forms of socio-political organization: the "circles of compensation." These cooperative groupings of economic, political, and bureaucratic interests dictate corporate and individual responses to such critical issues as investment and innovation; at the micro level, they explain why individuals can be decidedly cautious on their own, yet prone to risk-taking as a collective. Kent E. Calder examines how these circles operate in seven concrete areas, from food supply to consumer electronics, and deals in special detail with the influence of Japan's changing financial system. The result is a comprehensive overview of Japan's circles of compensation as they stand today, and a road map for broadening them in the future.